"There is no such thing as a senseless act of kindness," says the little thing - let's call it a forecast - I get every morning from an outfit called Astrology.com. It's a Tarot reading, apparently, and comes accompanied this morning by The Judgement, a card showing an angel blowing a trumpet, and below him/her, a group of pale-looking people standing up in their coffins and raising their arms. Okay. Good thought. The daily Tarot reading occupies the place in my mind once filled by the tiny pocket cartoon in the newspaper I used to read on my daily commute, all those years ago.
Now, I don't have time to field any challenges around "Surely you don't believe in all that stuff?" and anyway, unlike a proper grown-up economic-type forecast, my Tarot reading has a button right underneath saying <Get New Reading>. If I don't agree that there's no such thing as a senseless act of kindness, I can press the button to be shown another card with a different message. Economic forecasts don't come with an "If you don't believe this, we can forecast something else" button, and these days, the public ones tend to be presented as though the word "could" conveys certainty rather than possibility.
I remember the day, long ago now, when I realised that economic forecasts aren't meant to be believed. They're the best guess - sorry, best estimate - based on a lot of "number crunching" (do we still use that phrase?) by experts (and that term?), and the idea is that they give both a direction and a unity of purpose. If the forecast is down, we can work together towards up. If we're veering left, we can pull right. But there is, or at least was, an acknowledgement that reality tends to go its own unpredictable way. Sometimes, these days, we use forecasts to hold forecasters to account for their fallibility. That's a human quality, and not a disqualification (up to a point).
Belief isn't the issue. Usefulness is the issue. We find the truths we need, wherever we choose to look for them. Thinking back over the events of this past week, I'll set aside all the news, the comment, the live coverage and the straight-to-camera recitations of what we know so far, and stick with the truth expressed by the writer of that short paragraph next to the Tarot card: there is no such thing as a senseless act of kindness.
Now, I don't have time to field any challenges around "Surely you don't believe in all that stuff?" and anyway, unlike a proper grown-up economic-type forecast, my Tarot reading has a button right underneath saying <Get New Reading>. If I don't agree that there's no such thing as a senseless act of kindness, I can press the button to be shown another card with a different message. Economic forecasts don't come with an "If you don't believe this, we can forecast something else" button, and these days, the public ones tend to be presented as though the word "could" conveys certainty rather than possibility.
I remember the day, long ago now, when I realised that economic forecasts aren't meant to be believed. They're the best guess - sorry, best estimate - based on a lot of "number crunching" (do we still use that phrase?) by experts (and that term?), and the idea is that they give both a direction and a unity of purpose. If the forecast is down, we can work together towards up. If we're veering left, we can pull right. But there is, or at least was, an acknowledgement that reality tends to go its own unpredictable way. Sometimes, these days, we use forecasts to hold forecasters to account for their fallibility. That's a human quality, and not a disqualification (up to a point).
Belief isn't the issue. Usefulness is the issue. We find the truths we need, wherever we choose to look for them. Thinking back over the events of this past week, I'll set aside all the news, the comment, the live coverage and the straight-to-camera recitations of what we know so far, and stick with the truth expressed by the writer of that short paragraph next to the Tarot card: there is no such thing as a senseless act of kindness.